Yesterday, the NOAA released long-range seasonal forecasts for next winter, giving snow lovers an early glimpse into what 2024/25 might hold.
- Related: NOAA ENSO June 2024 Update: La Niña Likely by Late Summer
Based on the outlook discussion, here’s the outlook for early winter 2024/25.
Tl;dr: Winter 2024-25 is shaping up to be a potentially great season for the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies, with colder temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected due to La Niña conditions. However, the southern U.S. ski areas may face challenges with warmer and drier conditions. Alaska resorts could see excellent conditions, especially in the southern part of the state.
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Temperature:
- Below-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest and Central Plains.
- Above-normal temperatures are likely across the southern tier of the contiguous United States.
Precipitation:
- Above-normal precipitation favors the Pacific Northwest, extending into the Central Plains and shifting eastward to the Great Lakes.
- Below-normal precipitation is anticipated across the southern tier of the contiguous United States.
Mountain regions breakdown:
Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho):
- Colder-than-average temperatures
- Higher than normal precipitation
- Potentially excellent conditions for skiing and snowboarding, with an increased likelihood of snowfall
Rocky Mountains (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana):
- Mixed outlook, with the potential for good snow conditions in northern areas
- Southern areas may experience warmer temperatures and less precipitation
- Ski resorts in northern regions might have better conditions than those further south
Sierra Nevada (California):
- Unclear outlook, as it falls between the colder/wetter north and warmer/drier south
- There is a possibility of average conditions, but uncertainty remains
Northeast (New England, New York):
- Temperatures and precipitation are less certain
- Potential for normal to slightly above-normal conditions
- Ski areas may need to rely more on snowmaking, especially early in the season
Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota):
- Increased chances of above-normal precipitation extending into the Great Lakes region
- Temperatures are less certain, but there is potential for good snow conditions if cold air persists
Alaska:
- Below-normal temperatures are expected for southern Alaska
- Above-normal precipitation forecast for much of the state
- Potentially excellent conditions for ski resorts, especially those in southern Alaska
It’s important to note that this is a long-range forecast, and conditions can vary.
Here’s the discussion in full from the NOAA:
ROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2024 TO JAS 2025 TEMPERATURE The JAS 2024 Temperature Outlook favors above normal temperatures for much of the CONUS, with higher probabilities reaching 70 to 80% over parts of the Four Corners region where there was strong model agreement, the decadal temperature trend is above normal, and there are favored odds of below normal precipitation. Above normal temperature probabilities are also enhanced along the extreme Gulf Coast, reaching 60 to 70%, owing to strongly positive SST anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and around Florida. Enhanced probabilities, reaching 50 to 60% are favored along the eastern seaboard into New England and parts of the eastern Great Lakes due to model agreement, warm coastal SSTs, and above normal decadal temperature trend over New England. Though still above normal, probabilities are relatively weaker over eastern parts of the Northern Plains stretching southward to the Southern plains where we might expect some minor modulation of temperatures given the forecasted La Niña, though not enough to tilt the odds toward below normal. EC is favored over the West Coast given cooler SST anomalies (leading to an enhanced seabreeze) and due to the potential for early impacts of La Niña over the Pacific Northwest as the JAS season progresses. SSTs are anomalously cold along the southern and western coast of Alaska leading to a slight tilt toward below normal temperatures over the southwestern part of the state, which is also coincident with expected early La Niña teleconnections. Probabilities transition to above normal toward the northeastern part of Alaska given forecasts from NMME and C3S. The next two seasons, August-October (ASO) 2024 and September-November (SON) 2024 also depict favored probabilities of above normal temperatures across the majority of the CONUS, again driven by model agreement and strong decadal trends particularly over the western CONUS and New England. Areas of exception are the West Coast and Pacific Northwest in ASO and the Pacific Northwest in SON where EC is favored given expected impacts from La Niña and the cooler coastal SSTs. The temperature outlook for Alaska favors below normal temperatures for parts of southern Alaska and above normal temperatures for northern Alaska, influenced by La Niña and decadal trends , respectively. This temperature pattern essentially continues in the outlooks for Alaska into early spring of 2025, as La Niña is predicted to continue, after which, above normal temperatures are increasingly favored for Alaska at longer leads, related to decadal trends . La Niña impacts are the key driver of the forecast during winter and early spring 2024-2025, and the forecasts generally depict below normal temperature probabilities over the Pacific Northwest and stretching into parts of the Central Plains from NDJ 2024-2025 through MAM 2025, with above normal temperatures over the southern tier of the CONUS. For longer leads beginning in AMJ 2025 through JAS 2025, the forecast is dominated by temperature trends , where above normal temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS excepting parts of the Northern Plains where trends are weaker. PRECIPITATION The JAS 2024 Precipitation Outlook favors below normal precipitation over parts of the western and central CONUS. EC is indicated over the southern West Coast and parts of western Nevada, as these regions are climatologically drier, and over the Pacific Northwest where model forecasts are weak and inconsistent. 50 to 60% chances of below normal precipitation are favored over eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, and parts of the Four Corners region where dynamical model agreement was strongest and in agreement with early impacts of La Niña for some regions. Given anomalously low soil moisture over parts of eastern New Mexico and western Texas, 40 to 50% probabilities of below normal precipitation are indicated. Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are depicted over the Southeast and along the Eastern Seaboard to New England, with the highest probabilities reaching 50 to 60% over the coastal Gulf States, Florida, and coastal South Carolina owing to a forecasted above normal hurricane season and given early impacts of La Niña. Probabilities remain enhanced, reaching 40 to 50% above normal, along the East Coast into coastal New England given the chance of storminess continuing along the coast. This pattern is generally favored for the CONUS into ASO 2024. Above normal precipitation is forecast for much of Alaska in JAS 2024 based mainly on NMME and C3S, excluding the northeastern part of the state where model signals were weak. Beginning in late fall 2024 into winter and early spring 2025, a canonical La Niña precipitation pattern is favored over the CONUS. Above normal precipitation is indicated over the north coast of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest stretching into the Central Plains and shifting eastward to the Great Lakes as the forecast progresses through February-April (FMA) 2025. Below normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier of the CONUS and south coast of Alaska through roughly February-April (FMA) 2024. The remaining leads, MAM 2025 through JAS 2025 are based mainly on decadal trends which favor drier conditions over the Southwest (MAM 2025), and over the Northern and Central Plains from AMJ 2025 through JAS 2025. A small region of above normal precipitation is favored over southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in JAS 2025 given decadal trends . Above normal precipitation is favored for parts of the North Slope of Alaska, due to positive decadal trends in precipitation, shifting to the south coast by JAS 2025.
